If you enjoyed my satellite video with LemOn36 you will have seen a really unexpected area where a chip leader must fold Aces preflop without any action before them (avoid to the end of the video). We have actually likewise blogged about when to fold Aces to a push in the past.
Today a 3rd scenario turned up where a middle stack ought to fold Aces preflop without any action before them. Maureen Bloch published this hand on Twitter questioning if this was a fold or a push, and she was ideal to question.
50 gamers win a ticket, 53 gamers stay, and Maureen remains in 28th position with simply under 4BBs.
This, to me, is a clear fold. The important piece of info is Maureen’s position. She is 28th of 53 and 50 get the seat. This indicates she is inside the bubble by 22 positions. This likewise implies that 25 individuals will blind out of the competition before she does, throughout 7 tables.
She most likely has at least 2 orbits before she will be put all-in. Reasonably a minimum of 10 gamers will be required all-in in the next orbit before her. Most importantly, the 2 gamers to her instant left are most likely to be required all-in after she pays her blinds. We speak about stalling a lot in satellites, however this is an excellent area for her to snap fold so she can pay her blinds faster before they increase, however stall as soon as it is her Small Blind so they increase on the 2 gamers to her left.
The majority of the time when she pushes with AA here, everybody folds. They fold anyhow due to the fact that it’s the bubble and likewise since she greatly obstructs the calls. Around 80% of the time when she is called, she wins anyhow. There is still a little opportunity of a gamer calling and beating her.
It’s not the greatest mistake on the planet to push here, however understanding not to is a big frame of mind increase for satellite gamers. If you push here with Aces you most likely win your seat 99% of the time, if you fold here and let other gamers blind out initially, you win your seat 100% of the time.
Do you fold Aces here? Let us understand in the remarks:
